Sunday, 6 January 2013

Madness of Crowds (Properly Incentivised of course)

This may sound like a "racist posting" but its not, but no need to justify or defend really, facts are facts. Why is it Chinese tourists become a lot more belligerent than travelers from other countries? It happened for tourists from other countries as well, but certainly not the frequency we see from Chinese from China.

I mean, seriously, if you fly in America, the number of times your planes get delayed or canceled due to inclement weather (esp during winter) are enormous. Sure you will get angry but what can they do, they cannot fly in those weather??!! These people learnt fast that the louder and more vociferous you are as a group, the better the compensation for food and lodging, plus inconvenience caused.

I believe its motivated by two main factors:

a) the louder and more belligerent you get, the higher the chances of getting "paid off" by the airlines. There were plenty of cases in HK where the Chinese tourists will stay on the tour bus or planes and refused to budge, and even have team leader for negotiations for compensation ... sigh ...

b) crowd mentality, or madness of crowds, all you need is an instigator and apparently there are plenty of them around ... just like guys are usually assholes in groups, you know they behave like idiots in a group (macho posturing) e.g. construction site workers whistling and making lewd remarks to girls passing by ... but the same idiots are pretty quiet when they are alone when a girl passes by ... sigh ...

Do we have the same idiots in Malaysia? Why, yes of course, some political parties will always have some idiots doing the slogan shouting and intimidation ... you fill in the blanks. When we can be motivated or incentivised to do stupid things with just a paltry sum, we are idiots.


Stranded travellers argue with police and airport officials at Changshui International Airport.
Stranded travellers argue with police and airport officials at Changshui International Airport. Photo: AFP
Thousands of angry passengers were stranded after heavy fog delayed flights at a Chinese airport early on Saturday, as the country was shivered through its coldest weather in almost three decades.

Ten thousand passengers were stuck in Changshui International Airport in the southern Chinese city of Kunming on Saturday morning after thick fog grounded more than 280 flights, state-run Xinhua news agency said.
Angry passengers stranded at the airport for more than a day struggled with airline staff, damaging computer equipment belonging to an airline, while police broke up scuffles, a photographer present at the scene late on Friday said.
Stranded travellers crowd an airline counter at Changshui International Airport in Kunming after massive flight delays.
Stranded travellers crowd an airline counter at Changshui International Airport in Kunming after massive flight delays. Photo: AFP
"The passengers were really furious, they kept going to the service desk to ask for information, but didn't get any answers," the photographer said.
Flights at the airport resumed on Saturday afternoon after the fog lifted, Xinhua said.

Air passengers in China have developed a reputation for going to extreme measures to vent their anger over delayed and cancelled flights. Cabin crew have been assaulted, passengers have run out on to the tarmac and even opened emergency exits to get off planes.

Stranded travellers argue with police and airline staff at Changshui International Airport.
Stranded travellers argue with police and airline staff at Changshui International Airport. Photo: AFP
In October, a Jetstar crew was held hostage by angry passengers at Shanghai Airport after a delay due to fog. On that occasion, up to 150 passengers cornered the flight crew when they attempted to leave after the delay pushed them over their legal flying hours limit.

A witness told Fairfax Media at the time that security, immigration and customs officials stood by and watched while the crew were cornered and intimidated.

In another incident last year around 20 angry passengers dashed towards the runway at Shanghai's main international airport, coming within 200 metres of an oncoming plane from the United Arab Emirates. Their action was sparked by a 16-hour flight delay.

Stranded travellers argue with police and airline personnel at Changshui International Airport.
Stranded travellers argue with police and airline personnel at Changshui International Airport. Photo: AFP
It was not clear why they charged on to to the tarmac, unless they were seeking to create a scene in order to boost their chances of getting compensation.

In August, two passengers furious after being refused compensation for a delay yanked open an emergency exit door on their plane – resulting in a further delay.

The cause of these protests partly lies with the Chinese carriers themselves. It is not uncommon for passengers to have to wait for hours inside a plane or at the boarding gate without any information about how long the delay might last.

A woman is helped by police and airline personnel after being pushed by the crowd of stranded travellers.
A woman is helped by police and airline personnel after being pushed by the crowd of stranded travellers. Photo: AFP
Air travel is growing rapidly in China, but the country's air corridors remain restricted by the government, creating a clogged, struggling air travel network.
Some 30 years ago, flying was a travel option only available to top government and company officials who needed to submit a special document from their employer to buy a plane ticket.

While most Chinese people still use trains for long-distance travel because of the lower cost, rising income and cheaper flights as a result of increased competition means more are now using planes.

Travellers argue with police and airline staff at Changshui International Airport in Kunming.
Travellers argue with police and airline staff at Changshui International Airport in Kunming. Photo: AFP
Over 270 million passengers flew on domestic routes in China last year, up nearly 10 per cent from 2010 and over 70 per cent from 2003, according to government data. The International Air Transport Association projects 379 million will be flying domestically by 2014.

China is suffering its coldest winter for 28 years, the news agency on Saturday quoted China's Meteorological Administration as saying.

Temperatures recorded over the country since November have averaged minus 3.8 degrees Celsius, while northeast China saw average temperatures of minus 15.3 degrees Celsius, its coldest winter for 43 years.

Plunging temperatures trapped around 1000 ships in sea ice off eastern China's Shandong province this week, Xinhua reported, while snowfall delayed more than 140 flights in Beijing last month, the China Daily said.

An annual Ice and Snow Festival in the northeastern city of Harbin, famous for its enormous ice-sculptures, opened yesterday as temperatures in the city fall below minus 24 degrees Celsius.

Temperatures in northern China are expected to pick up this week, although parts of south China will continue to experience snow, Xinhua reported.
AFP/Reuters


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/wild-scenes-as-passengers-vent-anger-over-delays-20130107-2cbvr.html#ixzz2HGuc6FcJ

Saturday, 5 January 2013

FOCUS vs The Edge

I read a couple of issues of Focus, the new weekly business magazine, it was pretty good. But I opted to wait for another issue before issuing a verdict. Got the latest issue. The tag line for Focus is "business analysed" and they stick pretty close to that.



The Edge is a victim of posturing towards their revenue, i.e. too much of the publication is geared towards lifestyle articles, which makes it a lot more like a watered down issue of Prestige or The Peak. We cannot really blame The Edge for that, I guess, I mean, the advertisers are the luxury products and property companies after all (largely).

Does that mean we cannot get a more than decent business weekly? Will it be supported by advertisers then or will they go down the same road as The Edge?

Focus is very good (for now). Staying true to the tag line, it covers not just listed companies but also business policy issues and SMEs, and even little private enterprises.

The article on Air Asia charging RM75 processing fee for a customer to recoup RM25 in airport tax was, shall I say, necessary and audacious, the former applying to the business transparency and the latter to Air Asia.

The spotlight on the high cost of international schools was very good and informative. We have to ask ourselves why? Why the proliferation of international schools?

Their pullout edition is not "luxury goods" thankfully but people and life. It focuses on enterprising people in business. Things which are very much business in nature and exciting to know and examine further. How the Tom Dick & Harry team are expanding much like Ben/Plan B, sounds exciting to note. 

The pullout also has a brief article on "nostalgia businesses", though it deserves a much longer article. Why are they succeeding or is it just kopitiams and refurbished hotels? Why are we clamouring for nostalgia? Is that viable or a fad as a business platform. The failure of Heritage Row could have been expanded to note the pitfalls for other entrepreneurs.

The columnists are a lot more relevant than The Edge. They examine current and local issues, things we want to read, be discussed and dissected. The Edge has too many columnists writing about things we don't care about, or so peripheral we just keep on flipping. The Edge already has too many syndicated articles (i.e. from other publications / financial media outlets).

I hope Focus stays on the path and won't pander to the advertisers like The Edge. I hope there are more advertisers who will support Focus so that they can stay true as well. Hard balance to strike.

Verdict: Focus gives a lot more bite per ringgit. Good balance on issues, listed companies, investigative reporting, SMEs and smaller private enterprising businesses.

Friday, 4 January 2013

Marketocracy Portfolio Updated

Its been more than 3 years since I started my Marketocracy portfolio, so far pretty good considering the 40.98% return since inception. Thus my initial capital of US$1,000,000 has grown to US$1.41m. If you are trying to establish a long term portfolio track record, its not an easy task, there will be periods where your returns will be down because the sectors you have chosen may not be the flavour of the month. Hence the best measure of a long term portfolio is to benchmark against the S&P 500. Since 3 years ago, the fund has beaten the S&P 500 by 12.09%.

Value: $1,409,774.00Cash: -$1,114.35Stock Value: $1,410,888.35Total Shares: 100,000NAV: $14.10
Fund Performance for salvadordali's Mutual Fund  January 04, 2013

graph of fund vs. market indexes

SymbolLabelPriceSharesValuePortion of FundGainsTodayInception ReturnCurrent Return
NSRclick me$43.082,500$107,700.007.64%$40,145.57-0.23%59.43%59.43%Details TOP
STSIclick me$2.8225,000$70,500.005.00%$75,512.71-2.08%47.51%47.51%Details 
PVSWclick me$9.0313,550$122,356.508.68%$47,164.860.56%46.54%46.54%Details 
HESclick me$55.022,500$137,550.009.76%$28,436.601.51%26.06%26.06%Details 
Vclick me$156.771,500$235,155.0016.68%$21,479.210.81%7.36%23.17%Details MIDDLE
LVSclick me$51.191,500$76,785.455.45%$11,670.812.87%17.92%17.92%Details 
AIGclick me$36.302,200$79,860.005.66%-$12,021.530.33%-8.23%11.10%Details 
Fclick me$13.578,000$108,560.007.70%$115,525.200.82%42.92%9.21%Details 
Cclick me$42.433,000$127,289.409.03%$83,825.862.51%18.22%8.76%Details BOTTOM
WDCclick me$42.881,900$81,472.005.78%$5,342.25-0.33%7.02%7.02%Details 
FBclick me$28.767,000$201,320.0014.28%-$13,309.513.56%-6.20%-6.20%Details 
POTclick me$41.561,500$62,340.004.42%$12,771.181.51%6.73%-23.50%Details 


 recent returnsright curve
RETURNS
Last Week6.66%
Last Month8.22%
Last 3 Months12.28%
Last 6 Months11.35%
Last 12 Months27.18%
Last 2 Years-8.09%
Last 3 Years8.61%
Last 5 YearsN/A
Since Inception40.98%
(Annualized)8.02%
S&P500 RETURNS
Last Week4.59%
Last Month4.25%
Last 3 Months0.97%
Last 6 Months9.49%
Last 12 Months17.09%
Last 2 Years19.99%
Last 3 Years37.52%
Last 5 YearsN/A
Since Inception28.89%
(Annualized)5.87%
RETURNS VS S&P500
Last Week2.07%
Last Month3.97%
Last 3 Months11.31%
Last 6 Months1.85%
Last 12 Months10.09%
Last 2 Years-28.08%
Last 3 Years-28.92%
Last 5 YearsN/A
Since Inception12.09%
(Annualized)2.15%
left curve  alpha/beta vs. S&P500right curve
Alpha2.12%
Beta1.26
R-Squared0.76
left curve  turnoverright curve
Last Month0.00%
Last 3 Months0.00%
Last 6 Months30.59%
Last 12 Months53.90%


Recent Transactions
Close DateTypeSymbolSharesNet Avg. PriceNet
Aug 9, 2012BuyAIG2,200$32.6719$71,878.27Details 
Aug 9, 2012SellWU3,500$17.5397$61,388.86Details 
Aug 1, 2012SellPVSW1,450$6.7504$9,788.12Details 
Jul 31, 2012BuyWDC1,900$40.0683$76,129.75Details 
Jul 31, 2012SellC1,000$27.0494$27,049.44Details 
Jul 27, 2012SellSNBC16,579$2.7035$44,821.19Details 
Jul 16, 2012BuyHES2,500$43.6454$109,113.40Details 
Jul 16, 2012BuyV1,500$127.276$190,913.96Details 
Jul 13, 2012SellPVSW2,219$7.3708$16,355.90Details 
Jul 13, 2012SellSTSI15,000$4.5614$68,420.58Details 
Jul 13, 2012SellC2,500$25.538$63,845.03Details 
Jul 2, 2012SellSNBC8,421$2.5564$21,527.27Details 
Jul 2, 2012SellSTSI20,000$4.7767$95,533.63Details 

Wednesday, 2 January 2013

Great Presents To Receive

Its almost a wonder over Christmas, when you hardly ever get the kind of presents that you really like. Too often we needed to buy for too many people, so not much thought goes into it. Came across a few that would certainly sparkle my day if I got them as presents ... anytime.




WHISKEY STONES - No, not the stones you get in your kidneys from over drinking. You can even get them now in Malaysia. Don't try to be a cheapskate and just wash some pebbles from your backyard. These are special stones from a special material. Brilliant to keep whiskey cold without diluting it. On that note, we always wonder if you should drink single malts neat or with water/soda. Neat is pretty good if you can take the strength, but its perfectly OK to have some water, I mean just a little, like the size of a shot of whiskey, not too much. Putting in a little water actually allows the aromas to come out a lot more than drinking it pure neat. Too much water (like at wedding dinners or too much soda), then drink some inferior stuff la, don't waste a good drink.

Maple Original front view with iPhone.
Maple Wood Wireless IPhone Speakers - The Original Koostik is the result of a year of product evolutionary design and refinement. It is the first passive solid wood acoustic amplifier for iPhone, and this now iconic design is in daily use in over 30 countries! By combining two hemispherical sound amplification chambers with carefully designed sound channels, it achieves natural energy free amplification of between 10 and 20 decibels. This means an increase of 2 to 4 times the volume! Please note that due to it's unique design, the Original does not allow for the connection of your charger while in use with your iPhone. It is a totally "unplugged" amplifier! 


Chillball Wine Ice Cubes


Chillball Wine Ice Cubes - Chillballs are the intelligent ice that will keep your wine chilled at the perfect temperature without watering it down or compromising the taste of your expensive bottle of wine. Its different from whiskey stones because for wine drinker you don't want cubes sloshing around. This one will sit at the bottom of the glass.

The set comes with 6 Chillballs in a compact tray with lid to sit very nicely in your freezer, thank you very much. It includes 8 patented clips (4 long, 4 short) to hold your Chillball in place so it won’t float up and interfere with your sav sipping. Suitable for most commercial wine glass shapes, Chillball Wine Ice Cubes can also be used to cool your cocktails, preserve your punch or any other drop you like.




Stemless Wine Glass -  I love stemless wine glasses. They’re elegant, they look great, and it’s been my experience that they’re much less likely to break while washing them. I like that they’re a lot less formal than stemmed glasses, and even less precarious on the edges of tables and counters. This has been around. In Malaysia we frequent so many non-Western places for food, and we also like to drink our wines, but you get shitty glasses or porcelain ones or shudder plastic ones - its just not the same. Buy a pack of 6 or 12 and you can put them nicely in a carrying case, so informal and can bring anywhere. Since when we have to use the stem????? 


Well I am kidding, there is a place for stemmed glasses, esp if you are drinking really fine wines. They keep your hand away from the wine. Red wine is best served at room temperature, or, at what was once room temperature—approximately 55° Fahrenheit. As you know in Malaysia and other hotter climes, we never get anywhere near that, so after chilling the wine, the last thing you want is to further warm the wine more with your hands.

The stemware allows you to analyze the color of your wine. Wine is a sensual thing; it’s all about the experience … and part of that experience is the color. Color and clarity can tell you much about your wine. However, a tumbler-style glass means that it’s difficult to hold your wine up into the light and view it unobstructed.

Finally, stemmed wine glasses make swirling wine before tasting much easier. Swirling gently aerates wine, allowing the flavors to more fully develop and the bowl of the glass to fill with the wine’s aromas. A stemmed glass can be set on a flat surface and gently swirled by hand, with little danger of spilling.  A stemless glass is harder to swirl because it’s more difficult to swirl a glass while holding it by the bowl.

As I Was Saying ...












Tuesday, 1 January 2013

Fiscal Cliff Averted, China Good News, Even From North Korea ... Rally Baby!!!


Shares everywhere is set to start the year on a positive note after a tentative deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" in the US and encouraging economic news from China.

Dow Jones futures were 250 points higher - about 2 per cent - after the deal was agreed in a late-night meetings in Congress, setting the scene for a good start to the trading year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had closed 166.03 points higher at 13,104.14 on Monday after signs of a possible deal.

The ''fiscal cliff'', which was set to kick in on January 1, would have led to $US600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts. It's important to remember that there's some tightening of fiscal policy, which is good news - that's what the US economy needs given its budget position - but it's not so severe as to cause a hard landing. The elimination of a 2 percent payroll tax cut, coupled with higher income taxes on the wealthy, will help reduce growth in the first quarter to 1 percent, from 3.1 percent in 2012’s third quarter, the latest data available. The expected slowdown is a lot better than no deal at all. What markets hate most is UNCERTAINTY.

The first half slowdown will mean that the U.S. will make limited progress in reducing unemployment in 2013 - which if you remember will mean continued liquidity by Federal Reserve for a prolonged period as it will take sometime to whittle down the unemployment rate.
There were also encouraging signs from China as data showed its manufacturing activity expanding last month for the third straight month. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) remained steady at 50.6 in December, although it was slightly lower than HSBC bank's PMI survey of 51.5 - a 19-month high. The lift in manufacturing appeared to have been reflected in rising commodity prices over the past few weeks, adding to suggestions the worst could be over for the global economy.

In another boost for financial markets, China's President, Hu Jintao, said in a New Year's Eve address that the country would work towards fostering global economic growth. The country would "step up efforts to promote strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the world economy", said Mr Hu, who is set to step down as president in March.
News that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, had called for a "radical turnabout" in his country's economy and offered an olive branch to South Korea would also lift the market. In a rare new year's address broadcast on state television, Mr Kim said 2013 would be a year of "great creations and changes in which a radical turnabout will be effected" and that ''the building of an economic giant is the most important task'' facing North Korea.

"An important issue in putting an end to the division of the country and achieving its reunification is to remove confrontation between the North and the South," he added.

Best Idea For The New Year



Brilliant idea really ... the kids will cringe ... but wasn't it too long ago when we did not have mobile phones, and everything turned out OK. Its just an hour or so, ... spend some quality time people.