Wednesday, 8 February 2012

Something's Brewing In Notion Vtec

OK, the Nasdaq has gone to an 11 year high. More localised news, the Thailand floods wreaked havoc on the HDD and related components supply chain. While this blog picked it up at 50 sen, JCY's current price and dramatic change in fortunes seems implausible 2 months back.
Cica Zhou Wei Tong (周伟童)


If you look at the recovery in Notion Vtec, it was OK but nowhere as spectacular as some of the rest in the same industry. There is still a lot of unknowns and uncertainty as to who are the real winners and losers from the Thailand floods.





While JCY did not see any of their factories affected, and they benefited from strong additional clients. I think some investors still think Notion Vtec came off from the floods worse than before. Management has guided analysts that 1Q2012 will see revenue declining 40% q-on-q. However, there are strong newsflow from the industry that Notion Vtec actually benefited significantly from the floods as well. Apparently their Thai factory which was affected only contributed a small portion of revenue.
Cica Zhou Wei Tong (周伟童)


If one were to dig deeper, fortuitously, they have excess capacity in Klang, and it appears that they have ramped up production there owing to the fact that they have secured 3 new big clients owing to the redirection of logistic supply chain away from the affected areas in Thailand.


Some are hinting that profits and revenue are even higher now than their results prior to the floods. If that is going to be the case, then the share price should be closer to RM2.40-2.50 and not dawdling below RM2.00.


Cica Zhou Wei Tong (周伟童)
Notion Vtec mother share price and volume:




03/02/20121.971.91 - 1.971.91-0.06 (3.05%)506,800
02/02/20121.961.94 - 1.991.97+0.01 (0.51%)175,800
31/01/20121.941.92 - 2.031.96+0.02 (1.03%)1,654,800
30/01/20121.841.82 - 1.941.94+0.10 (5.43%)890,800
27/01/20121.831.80 - 1.841.84+0.01 (0.55%)270,000
26/01/20121.821.82 - 1.861.83+0.01 (0.55%)305,300
25/01/20121.851.82 - 1.861.82-0.03 (1.62%)189,300
20/01/20121.841.84 - 1.851.85+0.01 (0.54%)45,000
19/01/20121.861.83 - 1.861.84-0.02 (1.08%)93,100




However, if you want to spot something brewing, the sharp uptick in the warrants and volume as well over the past few days may indicate some substantive good news or corporate developments to follow soon.

Cica Zhou Wei Tong (周伟童)


NOTE: The above opinion is not an invitation to buy or sell. It serves as a blogging activity of my investing thoughts and ideas, this does not represent an investment advisory service as I charge no subscription or management fees (donations are welcomed though). The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. The ideas expressed are solely the opinions of the author. I may already have shares in the above mentioned stock/s. Any action that you take as a result of information, analysis, or commentary on this site is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

This Little Piggy Went To The Market ....

How bullish is the market? Obviously some of it looks to be engineered. The wonderful stories accompanying DRB Hicom, Gamuda, Tebrau ... stories that evoke dreams and esoteric pricing. Then there are the penny mania. To be fair not all are devoid of fundamentals.


I like the developments in Green Ocean, which I think is an exception to the usual penny mania run ups. Nextnation just announced the contract with PT Inovisi, another relatively genuine game changer.


Markets running so hot, I am loathed to mention any specific stocks as it takes little brain power to locate gains. In fact, the dumber you are, chances are you will make supernormal gains trading ruthless and reckless penny counters. Just be careful to run and trade vigilantly.


How long can this go on? It seems at least till the end of February, making the likelihood of a May/June election likelier. 

Monday, 6 February 2012

We Should Examine Some Announcements More Closely - Nextnation

Investors can get lost with the flurry of corporate announcements and run ups by many penny stocks. However, the Heads of Agreement between Nextnation and PT Inovisi Infracom deserves to be looked at more closely. The more I asked around, the more I inquired, it seems this is a highly significant potential deal because of the smallish size of Nextnation and the reputation of PT Inovisi Infracom. The latter has a paid up 2.56bn shares and trades around 6,000 rp. That makes their market cap at US$1.7bn. Thats a RM5.3bn market cap company. Hence Nextnation may have snared a big fish here. Thats like an ACE company doing a deal with the size and heft of Gamuda, IJM or UEM Land.
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The share price did not move when the HOA was announced, rightly so, because its an HOA. However, investors should take heart if they see significant activity in price and volume of Nextnation as that may indicate some concrete agreement being finalised.

Potential Impact: For the six months ended October 2011, Nextnation recorded a revenue of RM29.3m and net profit of RM3.6m, or an EPS of 0.84 sen. Annualised that you are looking at 1.68 sen EPS. Thus the current share price is about fair at around 11-12 sen as its NTA is around 15 sen a share.

The proposed project is expected to generate US$22.5m revenue over 3 years. Assuming a net margin of 20%, thats US$4.5m to the bottom line over 3 years, or RM4.5m net each year, around 50%-60% jump from 2011 earnings. I believe thats a minimum deal size considering the size and reach of PT Inovisi. This deal, if eventuate, could very well elevate Nextnation's fortunes up a few levels.

Why Do The Need Nextnation's Expertise?: Nextnation has its own proprietary platform called MINDCEP, which connects to leading mobile services providers. Looking further to their three core products: SMSJET is in mobile messaging gateway and a micro payment developer; SOHOMOBILE allows for content development tools, billing system and DRM tools; and mCOMMERCE SUIT has ready made modules for mAlert, mCRM, mERP and mLogistics. If you consider the above with what PT Inovisi is doing, there are a lot of synergies potentially.
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Type
:
Announcement
Subject
:
OTHERS

Description
:
NEXTNATION COMMUNICATION BERHAD
- HEADS OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEXTNATION COMMUNICATION BERHAD (“NCB“) AND PT INOVISI INFRACOM TBK (“INVS“)

Announcement Details/Table Section :

1. INTRODUCTION


      The Board of Directors of NCB wishes to announce that NCB had on 16 January 2012 entered into a Heads of Agreement (“HOA”) with INVS (NCB and INVS shall hereinafter collectively be referred to as the "Parties" and individually as a "Party").

2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE COMPANIES INVOLVED IN THE HOA

      2.1 Objective
          The purpose of the HOA is to establish the basis of cooperation and collaboration between NCB and INVS on the supply of InoConnect IP Interconnection, a service platform serving telecommunication operators to deliver IP services, and InoConnect Bandwidth Optimizer, a system that reduces large data packets into smaller ones allowing data to be sent out via faster and more consistent IP networks. INVS has been actively seeking out for this supply due to the increasing volume and expansion of its businesses within the regional markets in Asia Pacific (“the said Project”).
      The Parties have engaged in discussions in relation to the said Project with the intention to enter into negotiations and finalisation of definitive agreements ("Formal Agreement") to govern the detailed business relationships between both Parties. 2.2 Background information on NCB NCB was incorporated in Malaysia on 20 July 2004 under the Companies Act, 1965 and was listed on the ACE Market of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) on 24 August 2005. The authorised share capital of NCB is RM200,000,000/- comprising 2,000,000,000 ordinary shares of RM0.10 each, of which RM41,580,000/- comprising 415,800,000 ordinary shares of RM0.10 each are issued and fully paid up. The principal activities of NCB are the leading end-to-end mobile multimedia Application Services Provider (ASP), providing one-stop mobile and wireless solutions to telecommunication companies, corporate and consumer markets. Its proprietary MINDCEP platform connected to global leading telecommunication companies and operators support thousands of developers and distributors globally.  2.3 Background information on INVS
          INVS was incorporated in Indonesia on 11 May 2007 and listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange on 3 July 2009. The authorised share capital of INVS is IDR1,000,000,000,000, comprising 10,000,000,000 ordinary shares of IDR100 each, of which IDR256,892,180,900 comprising 2,568,921,809 ordinary shares of IDR100 each are issued and fully paid up.  The principal activities of INVS include the provision of mobile telecommunication infrastructure services, advertising and other related services. The services include telecommunication software and platforms, broadband and network applications, and enterprise productivity and mobility solutions.

3. TERMS OF THE HOA

3.1 The salient terms of the HOA are as follows:-
          (a) the Parties will jointly form a working group to undertake such actions as may reasonably be deemed necessary or relevant for the purposes of evaluating the feasibility of the said Project, possibly with a view of setting up a joint venture company, if necessary;
          (b) to procure that the Project's proprietary technology be selected and utilised by INVS, and eventually be installed and implemented in its supply and distribution channel to INVS’ clients in Indonesia and ultimately to local telecommunication companies such as Telkomsel, Indosat, Excelcomindo, and Axis;
          (c) both INVS and NCB may participate in the equity and management of the proposed joint venture company, with the quantum and nature of such participation to be agreed upon between the Parties under the provisions of the Formal Agreement to be finalised; (d) NCB shall manage the technical operations and distribution channel of the supply of both InoConnect IP Interconnection service platform and InoConnect Bandwidth Optimizer system through the various regional IP networks that are connected to INVS;  (e) where appropriate, both Parties may invite the equity participation of a large Indonesian telecommunication company to ensure the ultimate success of the said Project;  (f) INVS will provide a minimum revenue guarantee of USD22.50 million to NCB over an initial period of three (3) years, with an option to extend for another three years subject to overall performance review; and,  (g) NCB's services to INVS shall include dedicated handling in order to meet INVS' competitive procurement requirements in relation to the high speed mobile internet space, especially in the Asia Pacific cloud services market.


More On PT Inovisi Infracom (from its annual report)

PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk is an integrated mobile IT infrastructure provider and the holding a diversified investment company with businesses which include telecommunications, mobile internet, media and e-commerce business. PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk is a local company engaged in mobile telecommunications infrastructure,  which focuses its services and products range on telecommunication software and platforms, broadband and network applications and enterprise productivity and mobility to enhance mobile telecommunications networks. Inovisi also provides high capacity bandwidth infrastructure, cellular telephone operator service, business solutions, internet service provider, advertising and marketing.

Inovisi investment portfolio includes telecommunications infrastructure, social communication network, e-payment solution and online market. The Company’s e-commerce Division recently expanded to oil & gas, minerals, and industrial products and services. Investment Division handles project financing, seed capital and investment facilities, and corporate M & A activity Inovisi was initially established under PT Cipta Media Rekatama. In 2008, a restructuring has taken place and according to decision of Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (EGMS) held on April 11, 2008, the company name was changed to PT Inovisi Infracom.
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Having its shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange since July 3, 2009, Inovisi has carried out some corporate actions including: Rights Issue I in May 2010 whereby the Company issued 782 million new shares, along with the issuance of 312.8 million Warrants Series I, raising a total proceeds of Rp97.75
billion, from which 100% were allocated for the acquisition of Code Wireless Group, a Singapore based investment company engaging in IT solutions and services. 

In December 2010, Inovisi decided to increase capital without rights issue, which amounted to Rp580.5 billion. After this strategic corporate action, the company has gained two more subsidiaries namely Abundant Global Group and Great World Group.Abundant Global Group (which now changed its name to Petrol One Group) is a business group originated in BVI and is also the holding company of Talent Global Limited, a B2B e-commerce provider focusing on logistics and storage specifically for the oil and gas industry. Great World is a business entity incorporated in Anguilla, an investment company which consists of various background subsidiaries, among others, Ozura World Limited, an investment firm in HongKong designing social games for internet and mobile internet users.

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By the end of 2010, Inovisi has owned 7 (seven) direct subsidiaries, namely, PT Chiron Max, PT Graha Tunas Makmur, PT Andaman Lestari Multikreasi, Fastlane Limited, Code Wireless Group, Abundant Global Group and Great World Group. In coping with the shifting in demand and the dynamic market movement, Inovisi continues to develop new business strategies to strive to become the leading diversified investment firm and mobile information technology infrastructure provider in Indonesia and beyond, by offering convergence infrastructure, architecture and cutting edge technology to drive business opportunities to all clients and partners.

Sunday, 5 February 2012

This Is Talent... Liyana Fizi Tonight @ NoBlackTie


FEB 6
LIYANA FIZI
9.30pm, RM30

Liyana Fizi plays acoustic tunes tinged with a mix of folk and bossa. Gaining acknowledgment for her melodic songwriting, the singer made her first debut as one of the founding members of Malaysian indie-pop band Estrella. Everyday musings and inward thoughts are the main elements of her music, using simplicity as the main staple. Currently singing and playing rhythm guitar as a solo artiste since September 2009, Liyana performs with her permanent band of sessionists, and takes a vast interest in using music as an outlet for expression.
Liyana will be performing songs from her acclaimed debut album, Between The Lines.



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Was at the launch of her album last night, what a splentastic show it was. I must say Liyana was 100x prettier in person than her pictures. But all that was immaterial when this singer songwriter started playing. Enjoy, what a talent.










Entitlement, Character, Altruism, Incorruptibility

We will never see this again, ever!


http://www.history.com/images/media/slideshow/harry-s-truman/harry-s-truman-retirement.jpg




Thought you'd enjoy this one!
This one you want your Children and Grandchildren to read.
They won’t believe this happened, but it DID.
Harry & Bess
This seems unreal..... 


Harry Truman was a different kind of President. He probably made as many, or more, important decisions regarding America's history as any of the other 42 Presidents preceding him. However, a measure of his greatness may rest on what he did after he left the White House.

The only asset he had when he died was the house he lived in, which was in Independence Missouri . His wife had inherited the house from her mother and father and other than their years in the White House, they lived their entire lives there.

When he retired from office in 1952, his income was a U.S. Army pension reported to have been $13,507.72 a year. Congress, noting that he was paying for his stamps and personally licking them, granted him an 'allowance' and, later, a retroactive pension of $25,000 per year.

After President Eisenhower was inaugurated, Harry and Bess drove home to Missouri by themselves. There was no Secret Service following them.

When offered corporate positions at large salaries, he declined, stating, "You don't want me. You want the office of the President, and that doesn't belong to me. It belongs to the American people and it's not for sale.."

Even later, on May 6, 1971, when Congress was preparing to award him the Medal of Honor on his 87th birthday, he refused to accept it, writing, "I don't consider that I have done anything which should be the reason for any award, Congressional or otherwise."

As president he paid for all of his own travel expenses and food.

Modern politicians have found a new level of success in cashing in on the Presidency, resulting in untold wealth. Today, many in Congress also have found a way to become quite wealthy while enjoying the fruits of their offices. Political offices are now for sale. 

Good old Harry Truman was correct when he observed, "My choices in life were either to be a piano player in a whorehouse or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference!

I say dig him up and clone him!! 

Thursday, 2 February 2012

Thanks For The Good Response

As mentioned, I was concerned about the pricing for the Valuegrowth Investing seminar. Thankfully 30% of the seats have been pre-booked. The first day following my posting we sold 7 seats and yesterday another 17 seats. This is fantastic, thanks for the support. Hence we have so far sold 42% of all seats, compared to 30% pre launch. Thanks again.

Views On Air Asia

Air Asia and Tony Fernandes: From public champion to money-grabbing witch?

Written by  Kenny Gan, Malaysia Chronicle
AirAsia is one of Malaysia’s great success stories. From basically nothing except a few old planes serving a few domestic routes CEO Tony Fernandes has built it into the biggest budget airline in Asia with routes spanning most of Asia and reaching into Australia, NZ and Europe. He has done it without any help from the government unlike pampered bumiputra businessmen.
However AirAsia’s success story has begun to falter amid charges of poor service, inflexibility, hidden charges, deceptive pricing and anti-consumer practices designed to squeeze the maximum from passengers. Whenever there is a news item on AirAsia in malaysiakini, Malaysian Insider and other online sites readers’ comments are almost wholly negative towards the airline. It is unusual for a budget airline which purports to provide affordable flying for passengers to end up on the wrong side of public opinion but AirAsia has certainly succeeded.
When did AirAsia descend from a public champion to a money grabbing witch? To be sure this did not happen suddenly but has been ongoing for years. The negative public perception against AirAsia has reached an alarming level and cannot help but affect the airline’s business. The suit by the Australian consumer watchdog ACCC did not help.
Copying Outdated Practices
AirAsia copies a lot from Western budget airlines like Virgin Airways but some of what it copies are outdated or culturally unsuitable for local customers. It may seem clever to refuse to check in a passenger who arrives 1 minute later than the counter closing time so that he has to buy another ticket but Malaysians find this very infuriating especially when other airlines have been very flexible. MAS will allow you to check in as long as you can make it to the boarding room before the plane flies.
Other practices which do not go down well with passengers are credit card charges, counter check-in charge and seat selection charge. The first two may be considered hidden charges as they are non-optional and should be added to the fare in the first place. Those who do not pay to select seats (currently at RM35 per passenger from KL) are randomly distributed so families will be split up. This is especially annoying as passengers are not charged for any real goods or services but for the right to sit together which should be theirs in the first place. It’s like taking something away which should be yours and demanding a fee to give it back.
But probably the most aggravating is AirAsia’s RM1.95 a minute charge to talk to a service staff. It may be for something which is not their fault like flight delays, claim of refund, lost luggage or being overcharged on their credit cards but having to pay by the minute to complain is really annoying. To add insult to injury they are frequently made to wait on hold while the charge keeps ticking.
Is AirAsia Really Cheap?
AirAsia practices a sliding scale of pricing depending on when you book. Early birds get cheap prices which are probably below AirAsia’s cost while late comers will be charged more. Then there are the gimmicky promotion giveaway seats which have to be subsidized from somewhere and it’s not from Tony’s pockets. The upshot is that AirAsia is not always the cheapest and can be more expensive than regular airlines. As nobody will pay more than a regular airline for a budget airline AirAsia tries to hide its real pricing and make it difficult for customers to compare.
This pricing model of gouging Peter to subsidize Paul does not work anymore. Consumers are getting savvier with tight social networking and no longer assume that AirAsia is always the cheapest. They will buy when AirAsia’s prices are cheap and stay away when prices increase. There are still some ignorant ones who do not compare prices but depending on consumer ignorance is never a good business model. This is like BN depending on the rural Malays to be forever supportive through poor information.
During last year’s peak Christmas to New Year period AirAsia was flying between KL and Melbourne with empty seats while all regular airlines were sold out. This is extremely unusual for a budget airline which should logically be the first to be sold out. Passengers have wised up to AirAsia’s pricing tricks.
Customers should also compare beyond the basic fare. Things like food, entertainment, comfort kit and baggage have to be priced in as well as other extraneous charges. Passengers also fly from the LCCT which is a pathetic excuse for an airport and they have to walk a long way to the plane as AirAsia will not pay for aerobridges. This makes AirAsia unsuitable for senior citizens. Then again AirAsia usually flies to remote airports which may cost more to get to the city.
There are also hidden costs. AirAsia is really only cheap if you book far ahead and pay upfront. It accepts bookings as far as one year ahead. This means your money is tied down and any change in schedule can be very painful as AirAsia will levy a heavy charge out of proportion to the ticket just to change a date. Some consumers will find that paying a little more for flexibility is not a waste of money.
Delays and Cancellations
Those who fly AirAsia know that delays and cancelled flights are far more common than other airlines. AirAsia has the dubious practice of combining flights if passenger loads are low without regards to disrupting their passengers’ schedules. The fine print on their tickets claims they have the right to do this. Only a country with weak consumer laws like Malaysia allows them to get away with it.
Those whose flights have been cancelled and are entitled to a refund find dealing with AirAsia an exercise in patience and perseverance. Contacting AirAsia staff is an arduous task in itself. Some customers say they are asked to wait 30 to 60 days to process their refunds and when the time is up AirAsia can come up with another excuse to reset the waiting time.
Long upfront payment, inflexibly, inconvenience, risk of delay and poor service means that customers will demand a big price gap from regular airlines to fly AirAsia. This means that eventually AirAsia will only be able to sell if their prices are very cheap and below cost. Passengers will look elsewhere when prices approach regular airlines.
A case in point is AirAsia’s cancellation of routes to London, Paris, New Delhi and Mumbai. These are popular routes to densely populated cities which any budget airline should be able to work successfully. AirAsia’s stated reasons like visa requirements and additional taxes do not make sense as they apply to all airlines and can be added to the fare. The real reason as reported in The Star is that AirAsia is losing millions on these routes every month. So why can’t AirAsia raise its prices? The reason it can’t is because passengers will flee to other airlines. They are demanding a price gap to fly AirAsia which the airline cannot provide and still remain profitable.
The Writing is on the Wall for AirAsia
AirAsia may have started on good terms with the public but the honeymoon period is over. Its service has fallen to abysmal level and it is treating its own customers with contempt. AirAsia is behaving as if it is operating a monopoly when no such monopoly exists.
Passengers have a choice of other airlines including budget ones like Jetstar which has been complimented for its transparent fixed pricing. Air Emirates is encroaching in on AirAsia’s lucrative KL-Melbourne route with very competitive prices.  Hoping that its new KL-Sydney route will be as lucrative may not happen as SIA will soon launch a new budget airline called Scoot which will start with the Singapore-Sydney route.
AirAsia has obviously not come to terms with the power of social media. In the old days an enraged customer can do limited damage as he can only influence his immediate family and close friends. These days they can vent their rage in online forums, facebook and twitter and influence hundreds if not thousands.
Horror stories about AirAsia abounds online. Some say they find AirAsia staff so difficult to contact that they are forced to buy another ticket when they just want to change a departure date. One angry customer said he has been waiting 2 years for a refund with serial excuses from AirAsia. One passenger was especially unfortunate. He reached the airport to find the check-in counter closed and the staff agreed with him that it was closed earlier than the stipulated time. She made a phone call but was not allowed to re-open the counter. As a result the passenger missed his flight and his connecting flight and to top it off Air Asia refused him a refund.
There seems to be a culture of unsavoury practices to try to squeeze all they can from passengers even to the extent of forcing them to buy another ticket. Such corporate greed will drive customers away. My sister was asked to pay RM1000 to change the date of departure for a KL-Melbourne flight. She has declared that she will fly Air Emirates from now on.
Tony Fernandez should put his mega plane buying on hold and work like hell to improve AirAsia’s customer service and public perception. He should step out of his dream world that every year will be the best ever year for AirAsia. The writing is already on the wall and if AirAsia crashes it will be a pity as it can be said to be the only Malaysian global brand.
Malaysia Chronicle