Texas Holdem (Ways To Lose Your Money Other Than Playing Stocks)

This is my favourite card game, and the only game I would play when I am at a casino, which meant that I do not frequent the casinos in Malaysia and Singapore. They do not have Texas Holdem for players only (the Carribean and other versions are stupid odds-favouring the casino bullshit games) because its a low yielding game. Money basically changes hands among the players themselves and the house just takes a cut after every hand. Too small for the casinos in Malaysia and Singapore apparently.


I don't undrestand that because the biggest gaming place is Macau and Texas Holdem is very big there as in everywhere else.Most people like poker, but nothing can compare to Texas Holdem because of the various possibilities. Many people who play like to think they are good players, me included (lol), just like many people who invest in stockmarkets like to think they are better than the average (again, wrong). To make money in stockmarkets you NOT only have to be better than 50% of the players. You have to be in the top 20% because only 20% or so really make money over the long run, the other 80% will eventually lose - want to know why, come to the seminar on 14 April and remind me to tell you.


Anyway, back to the game, got nothing to write about the local markets for the past many weeks cause its a punting penny stocks phase. If I write, then I am becoming too speculative, so better not to write anything. Only thing worth writing about, which I have written already, is plantations. I think if you stick to second tier plantations, you should be getting 30%-50% return if you hold for rest of the year (i.e. NOT IOI Corp, Sime Darby, UM,  ... go for those I did not mention).


I like the game because its not about cards or what you have, most games end up not having to flip over any cards, so I don't know why people are so enamoured over what two cards they have in the first place. The first video is the great Johnny Chan, why, he shows us clearly never to fall in love with high pairs. Be them aces, kings, queens ... many people will never get away from them. The flop shows 6, J, J .... and you have two players in as well. Chances are high that at least someone will "decent high cards", i.e. J (one out of 4 cards in the other two persons).. not to mention anyone having a solo 6 to boot, your pocket Aces is almost worthless after the flop. But how many will still keep playing them with gusto, and wondering why they lost.


Play the players and your math skills. People wondered why they never make a lot of money when they have big cards, they curse when they get small pots when they have high pairs ... then that person does not understand and appreciate the game that well. Big pots has to do with somebody else having a hand and the flop has to be open and having some thing for everyone.





Among the current crop of players I really like is Tom Dwan, he is young and has balls of steel. Watch how he plays in a CASH game. He never needs to have the best hand. His skill is trying to make others think you have the ultimate best hand. After the K came out on the turn, his cards does not matter anymore. All Tom is doing is making the other person think he has the best hand. Maybe it does not work all the time because the ultimate best hand usually only happens 1 in 10 hands. But you still need balls of steel.


Because in a hand, when Phil Laak has the K pair, he can be beat by trips 5s, hidden pairs of 3s, or trips Qs.





Which is why, if you want to master the game (you will never, btw) instead of watching great wins, study the great folds. Ask yourself, would you have folded if you held those hands.

Music Empowering Women

I still remembered the recent talk show section in BFM which focused on why women aren't climbing the corporate ladder more successfully. The world has never been treating women nowhere near fair since the beginning of time. Just pluck any cross section from historic times. We have made strides over the past 100 years or so but oh, we still are so far from being "fair".


In the corporate world, much has been said about women being represented in the board rooms and top management. The US being a much touted place for equality, and even Australia, are still poorly represented in those areas.


Do we dare to say women are not as capable? I don't think so. Look at the academic results for the past 20 years, given a fair go, women generally outperform men. Maybe success and a career in the corporate world requires more than just academic excellence, for sure actually. Leadership skills, charisma, interpersonal skills,  soft skills, high EQ, ambition, resilience of character, risk taking ability ... while most of those may "favour men" in their "natural makeup", it is not absolute.


The burden for women when it comes to child bearing, family, birth control, victims of sexual discrimination and abuse, etc... is for all to see. For a woman to make it to the same position as a man demands even more "productivity", perseverance and intelligence from them. Luckily for many women, that is not too difficult because men are generally assholes, yes, especially in the corporate world of chumminess, scratch my back - I scratch yours, old school ties, collusive behaviour, etc..


Sadly, the same can be said for women in relationships. Many are still locked in a time warp. Taking charge, knowing your worth as a person, self actualisation, being responsible for your own happiness ... are important objectives for a well functioning person of any gender. To rely on men to "open up" the boundaries for women is too passive. Too many women still play the role of "victims", docile in too many ways that represses the character. Too reliant on the other party for one's happiness and well being.


Equality for the sake of equality is hollow an ideal. Equality because we know its the right thing to do, because we are different yet the same, respecting the soul and integrity of a person ... then that means the world.


There are wonderful songs about empowering women (no, not I've Never Been To Me ... which is very much the exact opposite to what I have been writing):


Lesley Gore's "You Don't Own Me" back in 1964 says so much ...



Burt Bacharach's wonderful song sung resolutely by Dionne Warwick in 1963. "Don't Make Me Over".



What a song title by Meredith Brooks, all about the angst of being a female, in the roles of a girlfriend, mother, wife, daughter, lover.



Tori Amos' Silent All These Years, a thinking woman's empowering song, note the gut wrenching lyrics.

Excuse me but can I be you for a while
My dog won't bite if you sit real still
I got the anti-Christ in the kitchen yellin' at me again
Yeah I can hear that
Been saved again by the garbage truck
I got something to say you know
But nothing comes
Yes I know what you think of me
You never shut-up
Yeah I can hear that


But what if I'm a mermaid
In these jeans of his
With her name still on it
Hey but I don't care
Cause sometimes
I said sometimes
I hear my voice
And it's been here
Silent All These Years


So you found a girl
Who thinks really deep thougts
What's so amazing about really deep thoughts
Boy you best pray that I bleed real soon
How's that thought for you
My scream got lost in a paper cup
You think there's a heaven
Where some screams have gone
I got 25 bucks and a cracker
Do you think it's enough
To get us there


Cause what if I'm a mermaid
In these jeans of his
With her name still on it
Hey but I don't care
Cause sometimes
I said sometimes
I hear my voice
And it's been here
Silent All These...


Years go by
Will I still be waiting
For somebody else to understand
Years go by
If I'm stripped of my beauty
And the orange clouds
Raining in head
Years go by
Will I choke on my tears
Till finally there is nothing left
One more casualty
You know we're too easy Easy Easy


Well I love the way we communicate
Your eyes focus on my funny lip shape
Let's hear what you think of me now
But baby don't look up
The sky is falling
Your mother shows up in a nasty dress
It's your turn now to stand where I stand
Everybody lookin' at you here
Take hold of my hand
Yeah I can hear them


But what if I'm a mermaid
In these jeans of his
With her name still on it
Hey but I don't care
Cause sometimes
I said sometimes
I hear my voice [x3]


For pure fun, Shania's "Man! I Feel Like A Woman!". Nuff said.

Chart Of The Year

I have always had the same chart, only instead of level of income, I had the level of development of each country. The less developed would see more corruption and so on. The chart below says the same thing but on matters that speaks clearer to us. You want to know how to get higher income per capital (i.e. the average annual income per person for that country)... yes, less corruption.

To be fair, there are a few discussion points to the above chart. Indonesia for example has an abnormally large number of islands and people living in secluded areas which may be difficult to reach or partake of the general business economic activity. They may be classified as self sustaining farmers at best, people really living off the land and sea. Hence when you average them out as well, Indonesia's real figure should be a lot higher. Same goes for China. 

To be fair, corruption exists in every country, its the level of pervasiveness and the relative amount of leakages. We know that Taiwan and Korea are not very clean as well, the ties between the triads and government officials in Taiwan is well known, the unusually cozy relationships between major corporate figures and the Korean government is also well documented.


We cannot be too optimistic that eradication of corruption can be done in 10 years or even 20. I mean HK took at least 20 years and Singapore needed a heavy handed treatment for a very long time. Hence even if we do effect a change in government in the next elections, safe to say its just baby steps, but at least we must move forward.

This makes Malaysia's position even more untenable. Except for HK, I believe Malaysia's per capita income was higher than Korea, Singapore, Taiwan some 35 years ago ... vellapan ... do we need to ask why, we all know why. That is why when I hear politicians championing how good Malaysia's growth had been  for the last 20 years ... we have actually been grossly underperforming.

Vellapan To the Markets?

A good friend just got back from holidays with her kids and asked what happened to the Malaysian markets? She said that I wrote about the bull market being back and so on. I said, yes, everywhere else the bull is moving steadily... but in Malaysia there are two things which pulled it back. 


One was the article saying EPF had sold so much shares. That article was true and factual but not complete. And by being incomplete, it gives off the wrong signal to a lot of retail investors. We all know how much retail investors' participation there was since the beginning of the year. Go to any broking gallery now and ask them what shares they are buying, they'd be saying how to buy shares when even EPF is selling.


The article is incomplete in that to be a fair article, it has to note the times when EPF has been selling, how about every March for the past few years? I suspect it is portfolio rebalancing rather than an actual selling because, seriously, the article did not note the amount of local shares EPF is holding. It is more likely to be a seasonal effect, just as EPf is more likely to do window dressing towards year end closing. 


As a percentage of holdings its so miniscule. But if you did not elaborate, the general public will think something is amiss. Anyway, bygones be bygones.


The second effect which is a relatively new phenom, as families grew richer, school holidays are a must to venture somewhere. It is almost akin to the Western world's Christmas holidays. This is a relatively new phenom, maybe for the past 3 years or so. There you go, shifting cultural and social norms. I can safely say that almost one third of the movers and shakers in the market place were on holidays - how to move the markets?


Then I tried to extricate myself by saying, the bulls are primarily first into indexed stocks, which is why index wise everywhere have held up. Then after a while, it will move to the broader market. I know one and all are hoping that I am right.

Global Capital Flows - Developing Markets

Excellent analysis piece from Bloomberg Markets, my fav biz mag, on global capital flows to developing and frontier markets. Some call it emerging markets, but we need to divide them to developing and frontier to be more precise. Following the sub prime crisis and the subsequent Euro-crisis, the trend towards more exposure for emerging markets should be increased. 
 

How investors allocate their funds is what we call capital flows. Owing to the size of the recipient countries, such flows can make a huge difference to these markets. As much as investors can plough into MSCI markets, they can also take out funds. Last year, the MSCI valuations dropped some 20% on the view that the Europe's debt crisis would curb global growth. In January 2012, the figure was 30% off its historical average. 


Realising a calmer settlement to the Greece-led debacle, it is fair to say that valuations and funds should start coming back to MSCI countries. However, not all will benefit in the same manner, fund managers will index some of their holdings but many will allocate according to "outlook".
 

Using IMF data 2012-2016, Bloomberg Markets have created a top markets for attractiveness:
(country)  (cumulative GDP growth) / (gov debt/GDP) / PE / (ease of doing business, lower the better)
1  China             46.7% / 16% / 11.5x / 91
2  Thailand         23.3% / 45.3% / 12.5x / 17
3  Peru              23.7% / 13.6% / 11.6x / 41
4  Chile             19.4% / 10.7% / 18.2x / 39
5  Malaysia       18.6% / 56.8% / 17.3x / 18
6  Poland          19.7% / 55.9% / 8.3x / 62
7  Turkey          16% / 35.4% / 11x / 71
8  Russia           23.3% / 15% / 5x / 120
9  Indonesia      30.3% / 21.4% / 16.7x / 124
15 India            35% / 60.7% / 15.3x / 132


There are a few notables, the BRICs which were the flavour of the decade, have slipped enormously. Despite China still holding onto the number one position, its attractiveness in terms of growth has slowed, and that is understandable owing to the much larger base that they have grown to. Brazil has dropped out of the top 15, mainly owing to very exorbitant inflation and extremely high PE valuations. India has also dropped to #15 mainly due to inflation which is expected to average 6% for the next few years. 


One main determinant in attractiveness, which I have not put up is inflation rate expectations. The ones downgraded have exceptionally high inflation, which cancels out much of the growth and puts in a lot of side economic and operating problems. Russia's inflation is expected to average 6.8%, while the rest are maintaining below 3%.One can also argue that certain countries published inflation rate may be managed, which may explain why China is not as attractive now despite posting a likely inflation rate of just 3.1% for the next few years as many deem that to be way understated.
 

Indonesia which is way more favoured by foreign funds than Malaysia is ranked lower because of its 5.3% inflation rate. Malaysia seems to come out well from the rankings, and must continue to improve its ease of doing business as that has helped a lot. However our government debt as a percentage of GDP has to come down to below 30% soon or it will just spiral out of control. Inflation is at 2.4% but we all know its actually closer to 3.5%, don't we. We also have the problem of managing inflation via excessive subsidy, and that is a bad thing. The sooner we dismantle them except for critical items, the better.


One bad sign creeping in among big listed Malaysian firms is the "tidak payah" attitude in soliciting foreign funds investment. A couple of international houses which did major roadshows to the US and Europe saw only a couple of Malaysian firms willing to join while they get some 15 firms from Indonesia. Is it because many of them are GLCs? But even the multi millionaire Malaysian owners are not keen. While the Indonesian contingent are made up of mostly billionaire owners - go figure.


I believe this attitude stems primarily from the local funds (PNB and EPF) being very substantial shareholders of many of the Malaysian big listed firms. This is not a good development for many reasons. When everything is so cosy, there tend to be too much government to big listed firms contract given at the expense of smaller players. Business becomes for the big boys only. The cosier the relationship, the more likely you are to be loose on corporate governance, related party transactions and even transparency issues. 


We have to ask ourselves honestly, are we propping up the listed index with our own money? If we reduce EPF and PNB funds by half, will foreign funds come in to buy? If not, do you know why? Or we just don't care! 

CD Of The Year So Far

Winnie Ho has built up her repertoire well since winning the Astro singing competition many years back. Her resume include two quite brilliant albums under the guise of 2V1G, with master guitarist Roger Wang. I have been waiting for a long time for this to come out since Winnie did a few concerts dubbed as The Jazzy Sounds of Teresa Teng. Those who have been to those concerts know fully well what I am talking about. While Teresa Teng has a very special place in most Chinese music lovers, some of her tunes do sound dated, nothing much she can do about it really.


The simply ingenious music arrangement by Tay Cher Siang basically shone a warm brilliant light on Teresa's songs. Coupled with Winnie's resonating yet layered vocals, we have a wonderful album indeed. You will hear and appreciate Teresa all over again, you will fall in love with both Teresa and Winnie, all over again.


Its always dangerous to do full covers of just one artiste, and one such as Teresa's stature which is numero uno to the max. Fittingly, Cher Siang also composed a song dedicated to Teresa's legacy called Songbird, exquisitely sung by Winnie.


There have been tons of tribute albums of Teresa's songs, and this one is so high up the top of the heap. Just so happens to be fully Malaysian made. HK and Taiwan critics who have heard are surprised and making inquiries to bring the album to HK and Taiwan. Get it before being told by your HK and Taiwanese friends how wonderful this album is (malu-la).



CD Rama (Popular Bookstores) is having their annual musical carnival at 1 Utama, go get Winnie's album at a discounted rate. CD Rama has strongly supported this album by procuring 3,000 copies (mind you, Jay Chou and Eason Chan only sell around 1,500 albums in Malaysia with each release). CD Rama is also having a big sale on the ground floor of the new wing, many wonderful albums going for just RM9.90 ... go see it to believe. Best buy has to be The Police's 3 discs set for RM9.90, which include 2 live concerts CDs and one DVD of their live performance (and I paid RM50 for the same thing 3 weeks back)!!!

Smart Fund Raising Move By Khazanah

This is a smart fund raising by Khazanah, well advised by the investment bankers involved. This enabled Khazanah to lock in better than zero rates funding. It is also potentially giving up its stake (i.e. selling around current price) in Parkson Retail. Only when PR moves much higher will bond holders exchange into PR shares, technically at least 5%-7% upside from here before they consider switching. Its a good strategy if you think PR does not present much further upside (more than 20% over the next 2-3 years). Even so, locking in better than zero rates has to be worth something much more, Khazanah would be paying at least 2.5% I think, so thats a $7m savings a year at least.
 



The other consideration is the USD exposure. Make your own conclusions. Some listed Malaysian companies may want to consider such equity-exchangeable bonds as alternative fund raising - of course if its in the same listed vehicle, then its actually a convertible bond. Some companies hold lesser stakes in other listed vehicles, that may be the way to go. I am thinking about Vincent Tan's Facebook stake, sigh, I think this advice alone is worth RM2m ... somebody write me a cheque!!! If its Facebook, and before listing, I think VT can raise funds at WAAAY below zero rates. Say Facebook is going for an IPO price of $90 a share - VT could issue a bond to raise a similar amount but convertible at $120 over 3 years. This way, you lock in a good selling price, possibly negative rates, maybe -5% for $500m (provided VT has better use to reinvest the $500m of course ... maybe Ananda's power assets, locking in the yields differential). .... OK give me my fees now!!!
 



FINANCEASIA: Khazanah Nasional last night returned to the equity-linked market with a $358 million exchangeable Islamic bond, which was aggressively priced and confirmed that there is indeed huge investor appetite for deals backed by strong credits. The bonds are exchangeable into Hong Kong-listed Parkson Retail Group and are backed by Khazanah’s remaining 220 million shares in the company – one of the largest nationwide department store operators in China.


The deal attracted more than $1.5 billion of demand and well over 100 investors. It was also priced at best terms for the issuer, including a slight negative yield. This meant it pushed the envelope a bit further than triple-A rated Temasek, which issued two exchangeable bonds in the fourth quarter last year at a zero coupon and zero yield.


The fact that Khazanah is the investment arm of the Malaysian government and therefore viewed as a top-quality issuer was clearly part of the attraction, but the ability to hedge the underlying equity, the lack of equity-linked supply so far this year and continued optimism about the China consumer story all helped draw investors into the deal, sources said. Parkson may no longer be growing at 30% to 40% every year, but it is still viewed as a good story, one source said. However, according to Bloomberg data, 22 of the 28 analysts covering the stock currently have a “hold” recommendation on it. The rest are split evenly between “buy” and “sell”.
 



This is the first time in four years that Khazanah is tapping the equity-linked market and the fourth time that it sells exchangeable bonds that are compliant with Shar’iah law. The most recent deal, in March 2008, was also exchangeable into Parkson. Indeed, a portion of the shares underlying this latest deal are also underlying the previous bond, of which 55% is still outstanding.


However, the 2008 bonds are well out of the money and are not expected to be exchanged for equity before they mature in March next year. As a result, Khazanah has received approval from Shar’iah scholars to use those same shares to back a new transaction. The 220 million shares account for 7.8% of Parkson’s share capital and at the final terms, the total size of the new exchangeable bond is $357.8 million.


The bonds, or zero periodic payment exchangeable trust certificates as they are called for the purpose of complying with Shar’iah law, have a seven-year maturity, but can be put back to the issuer after three years at a price of 99.25. The long remaining maturity after the put – referred to as a certificate-holder optional dissolution – is a reflection of the fact that interest rates are at record lows right now and Khazanah is taking the opportunity to lock bondholders in for an additional two years at that same rate if they decide not to put the bonds back after three years. The normal practice is to leave only two years after the put, i.e. a five-put-three or seven-put-five maturity. There is also an issuer call after three years, subject to a hurdle of 130%.
 



The coupon, which on Islamic issues is referred to as a periodic payment, was fixed at zero percent at launch, but the yield was offered in a range between -0.25% and zero percent and the conversion premium came at 25% to 30%. As noted, both were fixed at the issuer friendly end, resulting in a yield of -0.25% and an exchange premium of 30% over Parkson’s closing price of HK$9.71 yesterday. The latter gave an initial exchange price of HK$12.623 – a level that Parkson hasn’t traded above since February 2011.


This is the first non-yen equity-linked deal in Asia with a negative yield since May 2011 when Taiwan’s United Microelectronics Corp sold $500 million of convertible bonds with a yield of -0.25% and a 39% conversion premium.However, that deal was linked to the new Taiwan dollar, although it was settled in US dollars. Looking at dollar-denominated transactions, there hasn’t been any issues with a negative yield since 2009.


The Khazanah bonds traded up to about 101 in the grey market during the two-and-a-half-hour bookbuilding, which boosted investor confidence in the deal even further.


The buyers included a mix of investors, including traditional CB hedge funds and outright investors, but also a lot of cross-over accounts, some credit accounts and some straight equity accounts, one source said. The demand from Islamic investors was lower than on Khazanah’s previous exchangeable sukuk, however, which may partly be due to the fact that they take longer to make investment decisions. Following the real estate crisis in the Gulf region there are also fewer investors looking at asset classes outside of straight bonds, one observer said.


The source estimated the Islamic, or Middle Eastern, demand at about 20% of the total, with Asia accounting for about 50% and Europe the remaining 30%. Khazanah’s latest two Islamic exchangeables – the 2008 deal into Parkson and a 2007 deal into Malaysia-listed Plus Expressways – got about 50% of demand from the Middle East


The latest bonds were marketed at a credit spread of 150bp, a dividend yield of 2% and a stock borrow cost of 50bp. Sources noted that there is plenty of borrow available in the market, but in case it becomes more difficult to access later on, the bookrunners will provide borrow through a stock lending agreement with Khazanah.


At the final terms, this translated into a 92.8% bond floor and an implied volatility of about 27%, which compares with a historic vol of about 35%.


The deal came after two Hong Kong-listed companies tapped the convertible bond market for a combined $434 million on Tuesday, breathing new life into a market that had seen only three deals so far this year.  The two issuers –361 Degrees and China Overseas Grand Oceans Group – offered two very different deals in the sense that one of them was viewed as quite expensive (361 Degrees) while the other one was very cheap. Both saw good demand, however, suggesting that investors are happy to use the CB market as a less risky way to gain exposure to Asian equities as the regional markets continue to recover from last year’s slump.
 



Earlier in the year, CB investors were very cautious about deals that were not hedgeable and said they would prefer to see more paper from high-grade issuers. Khazanah seems to have listened, and its decision to monetise its remaining shares in Parkson a year ahead of the maturity of the initial exchangeable has clearly paid off – if the bonds aren’t exchanged into equity, the company is even getting paid to take investors’ money for at least three years.


Khazanah invested $69 million into Parkson at the time of its Hong Kong IPO in November 2005 and when the Malaysian investment company issued its first exchangeable into the stock it owned about 9.8% of the company. The 2008 exchangeable was sold concurrently with a $96.8 million placement, which reduced Khazanah’s overall stake and left 220 million shares (adjusted for a five-for-one stock split) to back up the $550 million exchangeable.


About 45% of that first bond was put back in March 2011, leaving about 110 million shares still tied up in that exchangeable. The deal is exchangeable into equity at a price of HK$19.45 per share, and given that the stock is currently trading at about half that price it is unlikely that it will ever be converted. However, if the share price were to recover, Khazanah has the option to settle the exchange of both bonds in cash, meaning there is no risk that it will get caught out with too few shares to deliver to investors on either deal.


The exchangeable was jointly arranged by CIMB, Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan.

The Curse Of Being Rich In Natural Resources (Yes, You, Malaysia!)

We have heard this again and again, the curse of being too reliant on natural resources. There are of course exceptions, countries which are resource rich and deployed their gains well, invested in their people and education system, such as Australia and Norway ... but by and large resource rich nations are always underperforming.

Josh Haner/The New York Times

Thomas L. Friedman won the 2002 Pulitzer Prize for commentary, his third Pulitzer for The New York Times. He became the paper’s foreign-affairs Op-Ed columnist in 1995. Previously, he served as chief economic correspondent in the Washington bureau and before that he was the chief White House correspondent. In 2005, Mr. Friedman was elected as a member of the Pulitzer Prize Board.

Mr. Friedman joined The Times in 1981 and was appointed Beirut bureau chief in 1982. In 1984 Mr. Friedman was transferred from Beirut to Jerusalem, where he served as Israel bureau chief until 1988. Mr. Friedman was awarded the 1983 Pulitzer Prize for international reporting (from Lebanon) and the 1988 Pulitzer Prize for international reporting (from Israel).

EVERY so often someone asks me: “What’s your favorite country, other than your own?”

I’ve always had the same answer: Taiwan. “Taiwan? Why Taiwan?” people ask.

Very simple: Because Taiwan is a barren rock in a typhoon-laden sea with no natural resources to live off of — it even has to import sand and gravel from China for construction — yet it has the fourth-largest financial reserves in the world. Because rather than digging in the ground and mining whatever comes up, Taiwan has mined its 23 million people, their talent, energy and intelligence — men and women. I always tell my friends in Taiwan: “You’re the luckiest people in the world. How did you get so lucky? You have no oil, no iron ore, no forests, no diamonds, no gold, just a few small deposits of coal and natural gas — and because of that you developed the habits and culture of honing your people’s skills, which turns out to be the most valuable and only truly renewable resource in the world today. How did you get so lucky?”

That, at least, was my gut instinct. But now we have proof.

A team from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or O.E.C.D., has just come out with a fascinating little study mapping the correlation between performance on the Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA, exam — which every two years tests math, science and reading comprehension skills of 15-year-olds in 65 countries — and the total earnings on natural resources as a percentage of G.D.P. for each participating country. In short, how well do your high school kids do on math compared with how much oil you pump or how many diamonds you dig?

 The results indicated that there was a “a significant negative relationship between the money countries extract from national resources and the knowledge and skills of their high school population,” said Andreas Schleicher, who oversees the PISA exams for the O.E.C.D. “This is a global pattern that holds across 65 countries that took part in the latest PISA assessment.” Oil and PISA don’t mix. (See the data map at:http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/43/9/49881940.pdf.)

As the Bible notes, added Schleicher, “Moses arduously led the Jews for 40 years through the desert — just to bring them to the only country in the Middle East that had no oil. But Moses may have gotten it right, after all. Today, Israel has one of the most innovative economies, and its population enjoys a standard of living most of the oil-rich countries in the region are not able to offer.”

So hold the oil, and pass the books. According to Schleicher, in the latest PISA results, students in Singapore, Finland, South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan stand out as having high PISA scores and few natural resources, while Qatar and Kazakhstan stand out as having the highest oil rents and the lowest PISA scores. (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria, Bahrain, Iran and Syria stood out the same way in a similar 2007 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, or Timss, test, while, interestingly, students from Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey — also Middle East states with few natural resources — scored better.) Also lagging in recent PISA scores, though, were students in many of the resource-rich countries of Latin America, like Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Africa was not tested. Canada, Australia and Norway, also countries with high levels of natural resources, still score well on PISA, in large part, argues Schleicher, because all three countries have established deliberate policies of saving and investing these resource rents, and not just consuming them.

Add it all up and the numbers say that if you really want to know how a country is going to do in the 21st century, don’t count its oil reserves or gold mines, count its highly effective teachers, involved parents and committed students. “Today’s learning outcomes at school,” says Schleicher, “are a powerful predictor for the wealth and social outcomes that countries will reap in the long run.”

Economists have long known about “Dutch disease,” which happens when a country becomes so dependent on exporting natural resources that its currency soars in value and, as a result, its domestic manufacturing gets crushed as cheap imports flood in and exports become too expensive. What the PISA team is revealing is a related disease: societies that get addicted to their natural resources seem to develop parents and young people who lose some of the instincts, habits and incentives for doing homework and honing skills.

By, contrast, says Schleicher, “in countries with little in the way of natural resources — Finland, Singapore or Japan — education has strong outcomes and a high status, at least in part because the public at large has understood that the country must live by its knowledge and skills and that these depend on the quality of education. ... Every parent and child in these countries knows that skills will decide the life chances of the child and nothing else is going to rescue them, so they build a whole culture and education system around it.”

Or as my Indian-American friend K. R. Sridhar, the founder of the Silicon Valley fuel-cell company Bloom Energy, likes to say, “When you don’t have resources, you become resourceful.”

That’s why the foreign countries with the most companies listed on the Nasdaq are Israel, China/Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Singapore — none of which can live off natural resources.

But there is an important message for the industrialized world in this study, too. In these difficult economic times, it is tempting to buttress our own standards of living today by incurring even greater financial liabilities for the future. To be sure, there is a role for stimulus in a prolonged recession, but “the only sustainable way is to grow our way out by giving more people the knowledge and skills to compete, collaborate and connect in a way that drives our countries forward,” argues Schleicher.

In sum, says Schleicher, “knowledge and skills have become the global currency of 21st-century economies, but there is no central bank that prints this currency. Everyone has to decide on their own how much they will print.” Sure, it’s great to have oil, gas and diamonds; they can buy jobs. But they’ll weaken your society in the long run unless they’re used to build schools and a culture of lifelong learning. “The thing that will keep you moving forward,” says Schleicher, is always “what you bring to the table yourself.”

We May Not Realise It Yet But We Are In A Bullish Phase

As usual, the barrage of information overload when watching CNBC or Bloomberg TV will overwhelm everybody. Try to watch as little business TV as possible. I digress, there was an important bit of news that will affect all equity markets.



The Greece's debt resolution (somewhat). More importantly, the activation of the credit default swaps tied to Greece's bonds.


Greece’s debt restructuring will prompt payouts on credit-default swaps tied to the country’s government bonds.


The decision by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ends months of speculation that a Greek default might not set off the swaps, a result that could have undermined their role as insurance against debt defaults


Still, doubts about the instruments’ effectiveness may linger. European officials initially shaped the Greek debt restructuring to avoid activating them. The concern is that future restructurings could be arranged to stop swaps from paying out.

The Greek government chose to apply so-called collective action clauses, which it had earlier inserted into its bonds registered under Greek law. The deal maximized total debt relief for the country, but it also forced losses on bondholders — a credit event, and therefore a trigger, for the swaps.


The decision to invoke the clauses showed that European policy makers no longer feared that setting off the swaps could put stress on the financial system. Certain parts of the credit-default swap market helped destabilize the financial system during the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, banks and regulators have taken steps to strengthen the market, mostly by making sure that investors can pay out the money they owe on swaps.


Nearly $70 billion of swaps are currently outstanding on Greek debt. But after both sides settle their accounts, the amount that will need to be paid out should be no more than $3.2 billion.


The Greek default swap story has not quite ended, though. Next, an auction has to be held of the defaulted bonds to set a price at which the swaps will pay out. One question is what bonds will be used because most of the old Greek bonds will be replaced on Monday with new Greek bonds.


The swaps and derivatives association said Friday that there might still be old bonds available for the auction, and it added that the new bonds “might satisfy the requirements.” The organization has set the auction for March 19.


It is not the first time the organization has ruled that swaps tied to sovereign debt should pay out. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on its bonds, activating the swaps. Ecuador followed in 2008.

There was a lot of uncertainty as to whether what happened eventually with Greece will trigger the CDS. We need the backup insurance to work, not to be averted. Clearing the path would render a huge sigh of relief among many banks, funds and private investors. This means a large portion of funds will be moving again.


End result: ... we are into another round of robust market run, even though the CNBCs and Bloomberg TVs have yet to get around to this conclusion. When faced with a barrage of opinions, you get clouded as to what's important and what's really market moving news. I am not saying how long this bull run will lasts, but we just stepped into one.
 

Let's Move Our Country!!?? - Kiribati

Kiribati, possibly one of the loveliest place for scuba diving, is under serious threat. So much so, they may have to move the country!!!

Fears that climate change could wipe out the entire Pacific archipelago of Kiribati. Photo: AP

Fearing climate change could wipe out their entire Pacific archipelago, the leaders of Kiribati are considering an unusual backup plan: moving the populace to Fiji. Kiribati President Anote Tong said yesterday that his Cabinet this week endorsed a plan to buy almost 3000 hectares on Fiji's main island, Viti Levu. He said the fertile land, being sold by a church group for about $9.6 million, could be insurance for Kiribati's entire population of 103,000, though he hopes it will never be necessary for everyone to leave.

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Sea water washes across the foreshores of climate change threatened Kiribatui.

"We would hope not to put everyone on one piece of land, but if it became absolutely necessary, yes, we could do it," Tong said. "It wouldn't be for me, personally, but would apply more to a younger generation. For them, moving won't be a matter of choice. It's basically going to be a matter of survival."

Kiribati, which straddles the equator near the international date line, has found itself at the leading edge of the debate on climate change because many of its atolls rise just a few feet above sea level.

Tong said that some villages have already moved, and that there have been increasing instances of sea water contaminating the island's underground fresh water, which remains vital for trees and crops. He said changing rainfall, tidal and storm patterns pose as least as much threat as ocean levels, which so far have risen only slightly.

Some scientists have estimated the current level of sea rise in the Pacific at about 0.1 inch (2 millimetres) per year. Many scientists expect that rate to accelerate due to climate change. Fiji, home to about 850,000 people, is around 2,250 kilometres south of Kiribati.

But just what people there think about potentially providing a home for thousands of their neighbours remains unclear. Tong said he's awaiting full parliamentary approval for the land purchase, which he expects in April, before discussing the plan formally with Fijian officials.

Sharon Smith-Johns, a spokeswoman for the Fijian government, said that several agencies are studying Kiribati's plans, and that the government will release a formal statement next week. Kiribati, which was known as the Gilbert Islands when it was a British colony, has been an independent nation since 1979.

Tong has been considering other unusual options to combat climate change, including shoring up some Kiribati islands with sea walls and even building a floating island. He said this week that the latter option would likely prove too expensive, but that he hopes reinforcing some islands will ensure that Kiribati continues to exist in some form even in a worst-case scenario.

"We're trying to secure the future of our people," he said. "The international community needs to be addressing this problem more."

Tong said he hopes that the Fiji land will represent just one of several options for relocating people. He pointed out that the land is three times larger than the atoll of Tarawa, currently home to more than half of Kiribati's population.

Like much of the Pacific, Kiribati is poor - its annual GDP per person is just $1,600 - but Tong said the country has plenty of foreign reserves to draw from for the land purchase. The money, he said, comes from phosphate mining on the archipelago in the 1970s.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/threatened-pacific-nations-escape-plan-is--fiji-20120310-1uquy.html#ixzz1oiJbhRNv

Calvin & Hobbes On Some Companies

Some of you should have come across this cartoon before. It was originally meant for the US auto industry and its subsequent bailout. Heck, could this also portray MAS, AIG,  Indah Water, Konsortium Perkapalan, PSC, etc...

(click on cartoon to enlarge)

Insightful Comments On Lynas

Its good to have a proper debate and get the facts out there. The trail of comments by some readers are worth a closer read. To me, we do not need to be in this kind of investment, this kind of industry. No matter how safe, we cannot discount the catastrophe that cannot be ascertain. Besides human error, what we cannot compute into our calculations are natural disasters (such as typhoons, earthquakes, huge land mass sinking, extreme floods, etc.) Then when we do crisis management, its way too late.

Mohammed said...

Namewee is hilarious with his moving and jiving. Gotta love him. Mat Sallehs probably think one of their lives is worth a thousand of another races'. Just think how their ancestors obliterated native dwellers in many parts of the world in their conquest of the New World.

Anyway I hope this issue will unite racially divided Malaysians across the country to come together to voice their distrust and dissatisfaction of the powers that be. Irrespective of the political potential to exploit this issue, the question is what price can the people in power put on the health the citizens concerned.

The other day a friend argued that disrobing women for the media, even with their consent, to pander to the base instincts of men, is a transgression. While I could not counter his view lucidly, I said exposing unborn fetuses to radiation in an area or workplace, is tantamount to fetal genocide. A far greater crime, in my book, than mere displays of female flesh. He just nodded to that.

As Namewee said, f$#k Aussies and their lying ways. And Malaysian traitors too.

1:51 AM

 abel abel said...

The safety risk of the Lynas plant has been blown out of proportion

Amang (tin tailings) processing plants across malaysia emitts higher radiation level than lynas.

waste in amang plants are disposed onsite wihout issues (which was the original plan for lynas waste disposal)

Comparison to bukit merah is also unwarranted as radiation level of waste in bukit merah is 10-30 times higher than lynas'

Economic benefits are also overlooked

Unless the world stopped consuming smartphones, cars and tech devices in 2025, malaysia is gonna reap the full tax revenue of supplying 1/6th of the planet's rare earth needs.

Btw lynas did have approval to open the refinery in Australia. The 12 years tax break was the reason they chose malaysia over other countries. On top of that kuanta port already serve amang factories in gebeng have the knowhow of handling ore shipments.

It is truly sad that politics has gotten in the way of common sense and science.

2:24 AM

 elizabeth said...

abel abel,
U seem to know a fair bit. can u also tell me, how is Malaysia going to benefit if the plant only create 300+ jobs and Lynas is not paying taxes for 12 good years? Lynas is not zero risk, or near zero risk. What about the emotional and mental anguish of residents in and around Gebeng. So far, the government has not been able to tell Malaysians just exactly how good this deal is to Malaysians. Without thinking too hard, the deal had been good to those who needed to be greased.

10:40 AM

 Hijaz Kamal said...

Yes,malaysoa will be an end user, our company uses boron a rare earth uaed as dopant on silicon chips that runs your computer processors.there will be more plants like ours that will use boron in chip processing,the germans wik, build a big one in kulim.

It is obvious you are not concerned aout environmental issues but using Lynas as a political leverage.no harm, in politics, anything goes.

But hey..this is an internet..everyone screw each other.

I seriously think that Lynas iissue s blown out of proportiobs.

2:56 PM

 abel abel said...

Hello elizabeth

In terms of economic benefit, lynas still have to pay export duties as most of their products will be sold outside malaysia. And the services around lynas like transportation will see added business.

But I am looking at the long un 20 - 30 years ahead when malaysian oil will run out. We need to identify alternative source of income right now. And we cannot let politics get in the way.

The demand for rare earth is gonna go up as electronic products become more afforsable. supplying 1/6th of the worlds rare earth needa is a big source of income.

AELB regulates 16 amang processing plants in malaysia from logistics, operation to waste disposal. And they do it with no issues. We have the experience and the knowhow. That is why the IAEA report noted that AELB is professional, comited and dedicated to regulating IAEA and haa not commited any non compliance.

Peoples fear and anguish caused by deliberate misinformation and sometomes outright lies.I think if u survey the himpunan hijau crowd. Majority still think lynas is buildinh a nuclear plant.

8:08 PM

 Anon118 said...

abel abel:
"In terms of economic benefit, lynas still have to pay export duties as most of their products will be sold outside malaysia. And the services around lynas like transportation will see added busines"

1) ANY business generate the "economic benefit" you must mentioned. Your point doesn't make any sense.

Do you know what is our country's main source of revenue?

"But I am looking at the long un 20 - 30 years ahead when malaysian oil will run out. We need to identify alternative source of income right now. And we cannot let politics get in the way"

2) Who's talking about politics? IF you're looking at the long run, then you can see the damage radiation can bring in the long run.

"AELB regulates 16 amang processing plants in malaysia from logistics, operation to waste disposal.... IAEA and haa not commited any non compliance."

3) Do you know that the DEIA has NOT been completed?

".I think if u survey the himpunan hijau crowd. Majority still think lynas is buildinh a nuclear plant."

4) Where did you obtain such "factual" observation?

11:21 PM

 Mohammed said...

Great economics? Zero safety & health concerns? Only politics? Only in boleh land, lol.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/30/business/global/30rare.html?pagewanted=all

11:53 PM

 abel abel said...

Hello anon

1) not many businesses are as a big as lynas'. As I wrote

" The demand for rare earth is gonna go up as electronic products become more affordable. supplying 1/6th of the worlds rare earth needa is a big source of income."

Petronas contributes 45% of the govt revenue. But in 20-30 years time we prolly would have hit peak oil. We need to find alternative source of income NOW. We shall benefit fully from lynas after the end of the 12 years tax break

2) The effects of radiation on human tissue are measured in thousandths of a sievert (mSv) , which measure the biological effect of radiation on tissues.

lynas' radiation exposure level to the public is 0.002 mSw/year. To put that into perspective, dose rates for handphone usage has been found to be as high as 99 mSw, measured from a distance of 60cm!

Put it simply, you get more radiation usig your handphone than lynas opening shop.

2) the PEIA and RIA are sufficient to defernine the environmental impact of the lynas refinery. DEIA are called upon when the project affect the ecology etc. For exp the hydroproject in terengganu and he MRT project.

Lynas refinery is a closed environment and saparate from the outside.

3) when u r out in the streets, ask ppl to explain what is lynas. U will see how misinformed are the answers.

I dun find it surprising that this happen..

In fuziah salleh website.. there are over 300 mentions of fukushima. At least once a day since last year

6:29 AM

 Shihong said...

@Abel abel

Exporting another commodity is the last thing that Malaysia needs. Our dependence on oil has already given us the Dutch disease. There are many other ways to obtain sources of income, and many of these do not require exporting potentially "unsafe" commodities. Please refer to Singapore and Hong Kong, which do not have any commodities at all. It does not have to be this controversial. The only reason Malaysia is "competitive" right now for the Lynas plant is the tax break, as you said.

Time and again, we have used "subsidies" (let's face it, tax breaks are a form of subsidies) to gain foreign investment. After the tax holiday ends, there is nothing to stop the foreign investment from leaving. Even our electronics sector is failing. If you look at the electronics goods exports around the region, Thailand, Singapore, Korea, etc have all registered full recovery in terms of electronics exports (maybe Thailand was dragged down by the floods a little bit) (despite the Eurozone woes). Only Malaysia is still giving the excuse of "uncertain global economic outlook" for its poor performance in manufactured exports. We need to work on improving our productivity and competitiveness in other aspects rather than just being the "cheapest" in the region. Otherwise, we will go down in history as another pariah nation.

The point here is that, is there NO BETTER alternative to such a controversial investment? The issue for me is not whether Lynas IS actually safe or not. But the fact that it was done without proper disclosure and education of the public has allowed politicians to politicize the issue. If the government was completely open to begin with, educating the public along the way, this would not have been a big issue. The issue is so contentious because the government "tried" to hide it, which arouses suspicion. If it is not bad, why hide it? Whether it's bad or not doesn't matter anymore. The damage has been done, and it is irreversible.

2:04 PM

 CK said...

2of2

Cumulative dosage is the exposure to minimum radioactive dosage over a long period of time. This dosage could be relatively safe due to the low level radiation, but over a period, the sum total effect could be killing.

Just image someone is subjected to a daily dosage of x-ray examination. Though this x-ray dosage is strictly control, but over a period of time the subject under examination would suffers from radiation over-dosed. Bukit Merah residents’ cancer/birth defect incidents were mainly the result of this cumulative radiation exposure.

In short, the residents, around Lynas Genbeng plant, would suffer from the initial effect of the cumulative radiation, low dosage but doing damage silently to their health. Eventually, these residents would have to face the accumulative dosage that would kill + the final cumulative effect caused over the continuous exposure of low radiation. A double whammy!!!

3)Someone has bet me to the mention of ‘Do you know that the DEIA has NOT been completed?’

That also indicates how ‘efficience’ is our AELB!

4)Yes, there r many mis-information flowing around town, wrt Lynas Genbeng. U r definitely one of them.

But as far as radioactive waste is concerned, whether it’s from nuclear power plant or industrial extraction, human has not reached the stage of safe-guarding the handlers, lest about the protection of environment. This is especially true even for country like USA.

Then, what’s M’sia in this scheme of radioactive waste handling?

Just dig out the quantitative survey of how many of the amang (tin tailings) processing plants handlers died of cancer + the history of birth defects that ran in the family would put up a good indication. Bet then AELB has zilch such data!!!!!

2:51 PM

 CK said...

abel abel,

1)So u r talking long term? Do u know WHY other rare earth rich countries, like USA, does not give new license for rare earth extraction in situ?

Do u know that one of the reason for that is bcoz the current technologies used for rare earth extraction would ALWAYS lead to excessive environmental pollution (both radioactive & non-radioactive)?

95% of the world rare earth requirement is provided by China, whose rare earth content is ONLY 36% of the estimated world volume. USA has more. Ditto Oz. Yet, due to loose control & ignorance, China has managed to become the largest producer of rare earth. Until recently, the tightening of the safety rules means why suddenly China has reduced the export of rare earth to other countries. Consequently the rare earth commodity prices rocket upward.

Perhaps in 20-30 yrs time, new technological advancement for rare earth extraction would be friendlier to the destruction of the environment. By then, old tech fuss like Lynas Genbeng would price itself out of the economical loop with tons of accumulative radioactive waste to look after.

So ‘We need to find alternative source of income NOW. We shall benefit fully from lynas after the end of the 12 years tax break’, - dream on sucker!

2)U r spinning hp6 facts with hp6 lies.

1st – how do u measure the level of radiation from Lynas Genbeng? ‘lynas' radiation exposure level to the public is 0.002 mSw/year.’ is based on what volume of the residual waste from the Lynas Genbeng extraction plant?

Many people FORGET about the accumulative & cumulative effect of the radioactive dosage. Both effects r harmful to human!

Accumulative dosage refers to the combined incremental volume of the radiation emitted. Initially the dosage could be safe as the waste volume is small. But then the dosage reaches harmful level as the volume of the radioactive waste increases.

Thorium is forever present in the mineral ore from Mt Weld, though in very minute quantity. The extraction process of the required rare earth elements increases the concentration of the thorium. This also directly increases the radiation level, though in an incremental dosage. Eventually the dosage reaches lethal level due to the large volume of the waste accumulated. Bukit Merah cleaning process now faces a storage problem of how to safe-keep the dangerous level of radiation due to the accumulated volume of radioactive waste.

1of2

4:37 PM

 duuude said...

This is what it boils down to.

Australia: Eat that radioactive shit, you stupid third world bitch. 'Cos I ain't takin' it back.

Malaysia: Mmmm, ... sedap....

12:40 AM

 abel abel said...

Hello CK

1) just last week,American company Mollycorp opened a new rare earth processing facility at its Mountain Pass mine, california. The approval for the plant construction was awarded in 2010. $500 million was spent to expand the mine.

Mollycorp also entered into a joint venture with Hitachi to produce rare earth magents from components mined and processed at ithe mountain pass sitesite. It is part of their strategy to move down the rare earth supply chain. I think local companies in malaysia could go into this as well due to the availability of rare earth components when lynas open shop.

Other than that..
Australia's Arafura Resources is building a rare earth mine and processing plant at its Nolan project in the Northern Territory. It expects to start mining by 2013.

Canda's Avalon Rare Metals is currently developing the Thor Lake mine in Northwest Canada, which - according to the company - is rich in neodymium and heavy rare earths.

So I disagree that malaysia is doing a dirty job that developed countries won't do. The contrary

2) according to international standards, maximum acceptable dose radiation exposure for the public from any man made facility is 1 mSv/year.

AELB has set up radiation monitors onsite at the lynas plant plus monitors 1 km, 5 km and 50 km from the site. They publish the readings on a monthly basis on their website. You can check it out. They are also hiring third party independent assesors to verify their reading. Later on IAEA will come on to again verify the reading.

By establishing the base level readings, they can determine how much is Lynas' contribution to the radiation level in the area. That's how they verify the 0.002 mSv/year figure which is actually a worst case scenario determined in the Radiological Impact Assessment

I feel your fears for accumulated exposure is severely missplaced. Sleeping next to a human everyday, natural radiation from the sky, ground and your own body is proven to have several tens to hundred times higher radiation level than lynas!

A study found that handphones radiattion doze 99 mSv!

10:23 PM

 abel abel said...

Hello Shihong

Thank you for the reply

1) I agree with you that we should up our competitiveness and productivity. In my view, we need to support innovation so we don't hear anymore news of malaysian-born people inventing something new in some other country.

2) however I don't think it is mutually exclusive. If mineral processing can benefit the country economically, why reject it just because some people have made it controversial?

3) yeah lynas chose us mainly because of the corporate tax break. But our port capability to handle its shipment is oso a factor. Being tech cheap is better than being labour intensive cheap

4) barring the world stop consuming electronics, demand for rare earth component is gonna go up. So I don't think lynas will close shop and move away after 12 years.

Furthermore lynas still have to pay export duties from their shipment.

And, Lynas' rare earth components can be purchased by rare earth magnet producer such as shin etsu sdn bhd which is located in hicom industrial area, shah alam, selangor

How bout local companies openning its own rare earth magnets production facility? taking advantage of easily accessible rare earth components in malaysia. Hows that for economical spin off?

5) I am not sure if AELB is being secretive. The EIA was displayed publicly in 2008 for one month, town hall meetings was done in 2009, radiation readings are collected at the lynas site and is published monthly on their website and questions on Lynas are answered and published on its website. You should check out AELB website, there is a lot of info the public space published

10:26 PM

 CK said...

Sorry Dali, this one I must reply, even though it’s an old post.

abel abel

1)I’m aware of the recent projects that u have mentioned. Yet u conveniently forgot to mention major salient points that those projects have been undertaken!

All these mentioned projects have been raised many years ago. Some r more than 5 yrs in planning before Lynas Gebeng. They faced countless obstacles due to resident objections, EIA restrictions & pure economical assessment study.

Only recently those that u mentioned r managed to get approval. Their recent approvals came with huge financial costs that only the current rocketing rare earth commodity prices could justify. Most of these costs r related to stringent EIA requirements & implementation of new processing technologies.

Australia's Arafura Resources has to built its rare earth mine and processing plant at its Nolan project in the Northern Territory. Know how isolated is that plant in Alice Spring? Make one wonder, what Arafura can do & yet Lynas cannot do in Mt Weld! Ditto Thor Lake mine in Northwest Canada.

2)Now u r playing with words. 1st has Lynas Gebeng been in operation? If Lynas Gebeng is still in construction then WHAT r the reading that our AELB is monitoring, surrounding the site in question.

Oop, they r measuring the current natural radiation level of the Gebeng surrounding before Lynas is operating & use these readings as guild!

'That's how they verify the 0.002 mSv/year figure which is actually a worst case scenario determined in the Radiological Impact Assessment!'

How this conclusion came about when the ACTUAL radiation level of the Lynas Gebeng plant is still NOT available? Perhaps, as in figure-from-the-sky?

U r the one that is been severely trying to spin. Read my take again. Lynas claimed that the radiation level of Thorium WOULD not increase bcoz they r not mining Throrium. This is hp6 fact & lie. Any extraction process would increase the concentration of the ore wanted. At the same time, other unwanted ‘residues’ would also inevitably be concentrated. THIS IS THE LAW OF ANY PROCESSING PROCEDURE. U yrself & Lynas have been saying the same thing as the radiation level of the amang (tin tailing) is higher than the mineral ore from Mt Weld. Think – why the amang has such a high level of radiation. The mineral ore containing the tin has all the time been radioactive, except in a very minute level. The moment the tin is been extracted, the amang shows high level of radiation. Does this high level of radiation comes from sky? Or created by the tin mining process?

As the concentration of the Thorium waste increases, the radiation level also increase proportionally. This process is gradual & incremental. & in the case of Throrium, with a half life of 14B years, the Thorium level CAN only increase as the volume of waste increases.

Since u keep using handphone radiation as an argument, then WOULD u like to inhale 0.0002mSv of Thorium vis-à-vis using a 99mSv emitting handphone daily?

BTW, the health hazard of the microwave radiation of the handphone to user is in dispute. Whereas, the Thorium intoxication effect to the lung is VERY well-know.

3)‘So I don't think lynas will close shop and move away after 12 years.’

But by then new & more efficient extraction process would definitely kill LAMP, which is nice in name & yet archaic in mineral extraction technology. Do try to compare LAMP with the new plants that u’ve mentioned earlier, iff u still have time after this spin.

4)‘I am not sure if AELB is being secretive.’

They r definitely no been professional! Especially after the hooha with the radiation level of Lynas Gebeng & the health effect of the amang among the handlers!

10:37 AM